The 9th seed, Auburn Tigers (21-2,10-8 SEC) are no strangers to the NCAA Tournament. Although they have never won a National Title, the Tigers advanced to the 2019 Final Four, and have twelve total NCAA Tournament appearances.
The Tigers are coming off an impressive first round win over Iowa, 83-75. The Houston Cougars (32-3, 17-2 American) are coming off a first round win against Northern Kentucky, 63-52. Houston is ranked #2 in the nation and have never won a NCAA Tournament Championship.
Much like Auburn, they made it to the 2021-2022 regional final, and advanced to the tournament twenty-four times. These two teams will play on Saturday at 7:10 EDT, in the Midwest Region, located in Birmingham, Alabama.
The matchup will air on TBS. If you are looking for the best betting odds, here is information to know:
Betting Odds, Money Line, Spread, Under/Over
*All lines are taken from Draft Kings*
Money Line:
- Houston: -250
- Auburn: +210
Over/Under: 132
Spread:
- Houston: -5.5(-110)
- Auburn: +5.5 (-110)
Tournament Recap
Houston
Houston had an unimpressive win against 16th seed Northern Kentucky, 63-52 Thursday. The Cougars lost Marcus Sasser throughout the game due to injury, who only shot 25 percent from the 3-point line.
This team did out-rebound NKU 42-33 and shot 49 percent from the field. Houston committed 17 turnovers and were able to secure the money line.
Auburn
Auburn had an impressive win over 8th seed Iowa 83-75, hitting the over in round one of the NCAA Tournament. They covered the spread by -1.5.
Surprisingly, Auburn shot 36.4 % from the three-point range, and 46 percent from the field. Although they were outrebounded 44-38, they were able to secure that money line.
Regular Season Recap
Houston Cougars
The Houston Cougars are coming off an incredible season, finishing 32-3 overall, and 17-1 in the AAC. Houston now has six straight seasons of 20-plus wins and no more than 8 losses in each of those seasons.
Last year, the Cougars lost to Villanova in the Elite Eight. However, they are poised to make a deep run again this year, and have the talent to make it, if healthy.
Even though Houston played incredibly this season, they are only 1-1 against the top 25 teams this year. They won against Virginia, 69-61, and lost to Alabama, 71-65. Houston started their season with 9 straight wins and won 22 of their last 25 games.
The Cougars ranked 38th in strength of schedule and went 9-1 in their last ten games. Houston has an incredible defense that ranks #2 in the nation in points allowed.
This team allows only 56.4 points per game and holds opponents to 27.33% on three-point shooting. This Houston team has a slower tempo and led the nation in opponent field goal percentage of 36.1.
They excel defensively both on the perimeter and inside the paint. Led by Senior guard Marcus Sasser, this is a complete team that plays very well on both sides of the ball. They rank within the top 100 in assists, and right outside the top 100 in points per game.
Houston has been a consistent program over the years, and have additional stars, Jarace Walker and J’Wan Roberts to carry them through.
Auburn Tigers
The Auburn Tigers had an interesting season, to say the least. Head Coach Bruce Pearl’s team struggled at times. Much like Houston, Auburn has experience in the NCAA Tournament.
They’ve made 12 tournament appearances and lost in the second round last year. They finished 21-12 in a competitive SEC, which resulted in a 7th overall conference finish.
The Tigers finished 10-8 in the conference, six games behind Alabama. Auburn started off the season on fire, winning their first eight games. In their final 24 games, they finished just 12-12.
The program had impressive wins over Arkansas and Tennessee. However, they are 2-3 against top 25 teams and took two key losses against Alabama, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
After analyzing all the wins and tough losses, it’s important to note the Tigers ranked 8th in strength in schedule. They rank middle of the pack in points per game, assists per game, and rank 321st in three-pointers made at 31.5 %.
This team shows defensive strengths, however not as strong as Houston. They rank top 100 in points allowed, 30th in opponent field goal percentage, and rank top 5 in opponent three-point percentage.
Sophomore Johni Broome has provided defense down below, ranking top 65 in blocks. The Auburn Tigers beat Iowa in the first round of the tournament.
However, they have not been able to close out close games, specifically against West Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt. They rank 85th, with a point differential of ONLY +5.7 points.
Injury Report
Houston
- Marcus Sasser (Guard, Groin) Game Time Decision. Sasser claims he is “100 percent” playing vs. Auburn as of 3/18/2023.
- Mylik Wilson (Guard, non-injury related) Out for the Season
- Ramon Walker Jr. (Guard, personal) Out for the Season
Auburn
- Chance Westry (Guard, Knee) Out for the Season
Key Players
Houston
Senior guard Marcus Sasser has arguably been one of their top players this season. He is the ACC Player of the Year for a reason. Sasser is averaging 16.7 points per game, which ranks 127th in the nation.
He adds over three assists per game, along with a few rebounds. Marcus is shooting a strong 38.2 % from the 3-point this season, and 84 free throw percentage. He adds defense to this team, averaging 1.6 steals per game.
He scored more than 20 points six times in a row this season and had his best performance against ECU in the American Athletic Conference Semifinal. He contributed 30 points on 60 field goal percentage and shot 100% from the free throw line.
He knocked down 4-9 three-point shots. However, Sasser struggled with a recent groin injury and was held out of Houston’s loss against Memphis. He attempted to make a return in the first round against Northern Kentucky.
However, he was still injured and finished with 5 points on 2-5 shooting. If he is 100%, I trust this Houston team moving forward.
Junior Forward J’Wan Roberts leads Houston in rebounds with 7.9 boards per game. He adds a solid 10.4 points per game and shoots 64 % from the field. He also averages more than 1 block per game.
Expect Freshman Forward Jarace Walker to make an impact in March Madness. He adds 11.2 points per game, with 6.6 rebounds, and shoots 47.8 percent from the field.
He provided three blocks in the American Athletic Conference Championship Final loss against Memphis. Walker also has nine blocks in his last five games.
Auburn
Sophomore Forward Johni Broome leads the tigers in 14.2 points per game, which ranks 150+. In addition, he’s tied for 63rd in rebounds with 8.5. Also, Broome shoots well over 50 percent from the field.
Broome was extremely impressive in the first-round win against Iowa, adding 19 points and 5 blocks. He shot 100 percent from the three-point line and snagged 12 rebounds. Broome stands at 6 foot 10 and averages 2.4 blocks per game.
He is a solid rim protector, that can play excellent interior defense and can score. He’s not the best three-point shooter, only averaging 30 percent.
Auburn has four players who average double digits in points, including guard Wendell Green Jr, forward Jaylin Williams, and guard Allen Flanigan.
They aren’t the highest 3-point shooters. However, they all shoot above 44 percent from the field and provide defensive stability.
Key Stats
- Houston averaged 75 points per game during the regular season.
- Auburn averaged 75 points per game during the regular season.
- Houston ranks 2nd in points allowed with 56.4 opponents points per game.
- Auburn ranks 98th in points allowed with 67.3 opponents points per game.
- Houston ranks 19th in rebounds per game with 38.9Auburn ranks 88th in rebounds per game with 36.3
- Houston ranks 1st in point differential at +18.3
- Auburn ranks 85th in point differential at +5.7
- Houston ranks 25th in blocked shots with 4.7 per game.
- Auburn ranks 13th in blocked shots with 5.1 per game.
- Houston averages 34.5 % from the 3-point, while Auburn averages 31.4 % beyond the arc.
Last 10 Games + Game Prediction
SPREAD: Auburn + 5.5
- Houston covered the spread in just TWO of their last 10 games.
- Auburn covered the spread in just FOUR of their last 10 games.
- Houston has an 18-17-0 record ATS this season.
- Auburn has a 16-17-0 record ATS this season.
- Auburn covered the spread +10 against the #1 program in the nation, Alabama.
Both teams proved why they should be in the tournament. Houston is an elite team, ranking in the top defensive category. Auburn holds their own on the defensive front.
If Auburn can keep up on the rebounds, limit turnovers, and make smart shots, they can keep up. Neither of these teams is highly ranked as far as 3-point percentage goes. Give me Auburn +5.5
MONEY LINE: Houston
- Houston won the Money Line 9 out of their last 10 games
- Auburn won the Money Line 4 of their last 10 games.
If Marcus Sasser is fully healthy, as he claims, I fully expect Houston to win this game. They are a well-rounded team, with talent on both sides.
They rank top five in points allowed, and the Cougars are dominant on the glass & even favorites to win March Madness according to college basketball sportsbooks.
They have an incredible point differential and role players that come together and let their defense speak for themselves.
OVER/UNDER- Under
- Houston Avg +/- vs O/U Line: -2.3
- Auburn Avg +/- vs O/U Line: -0.2
- Houston Overall O/U Record: 16-19-0
- Auburn O/U Record: 20-13-0
- Houston hit the UNDER in 6 of their last 10 games
- Auburn hit the OVER in 6 of their last 10 games.
132 is what I expected for the over/ under. Both teams play incredible defense and are not three-point threats.
Expect both teams to apply pressure and play zones to cover the inside paint.
