Betting Odds & Predictions: Liberty vs Sun | WNBA Semis Game 3

New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun | September 29, 2023

With the series tied 1-1, the New York Liberty will match up with the Connecticut Sun on the road for Game three of the Semifinals. After dropping the first game to the Sun 78-63, New York captured an 84-77 victory in game two.

The series will be a close one

Tonight is game three of the WNBA Semifinals between the New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun. Best of five games, New York clutched a game two 84-77 victory over Connecticut. Favored by -9.5, New York made adjustments on offense, and defensively to zone coverage.

After the win, Liberty forward Jonquel Jones describe the game as a “do or die situation,” With Breanna Stewart winning the MVP hours before tip, the Liberty knew it would be a special night, backed by fans.

In a fairly close game, New York stepped up their gameplay in the second half and attacked inside the basket. Sabrina Ionescu finished with 21 points, one block, one steal, and five assists.

Her ten free throws attempted and made were a playoff career high. Betnijah Laney, held to just three points in game one, was a crucial factor on both ends of the court. Laney finished on 5-7 three-point shooting with 20 points.

For the Connecticut Sun, Natisha Hiedeman was limited to just 14 minutes due to an undisclosed illness. Rebecca Allen, a vital factor in game one, was held to 20 minutes due to personal fouls.

In their absence, Tiffany Hayes finished with a game-high 30 points, and DeWanna Bonner with 19. Alyssa Thomas, who had an incredible season, finished just 2-13 from the field and ten points.

In this article, I will break down the WNBA betting odds, statistics, trends, odds, player prop bets, and predictions. The matchup will begin at 7:30 p.m. ET, at Mohegan Sun Arena, located in Uncasville, Connecticut.

If you’re betting on the WNBA and interested in watching, the game will air on ESPN2. For the best betting odds, stats, and analysis, here is information to know.

WNBA Odds Game 3: New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

WNBA Semifinals Series Odds: New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

New York Liberty -3.5 (-115)

The New York Liberty didn’t have a great first game and were far from perfect in game two. New York limited the shots of Alyssa Thomas, despite a 30-point performance from Tiffany Hayes.

Once down by 12 points, New York made the adjustments, especially with zone defense. A deadly three-point shooting team, New York adapted their offensive scheme based off pressure on the perimeter.

Jonquel Jones has been a crucial X-factor in the sense of setting the tempo in the first two games. Often held in the second half, Jones is excellent in using her size and strength down low.

Last matchup, we saw Jones have several inside buckets over DeWanna Bonner. No. 35 had nine points in the first half, finishing with a double-double by the end of regulation.

New York swept Connecticut 4-0 in the regular season series

For Connecticut, they will have home court advantage in the next two matchups. With a 4-0 regular season sweep, New York is no stranger to their home arena.

With the Liberty experimenting with zone and man defense, they must find a way to cover DeWanna Bonner on the wide-open perimeter.

The New York Liberty are coming off three days of rest, in which they had a record of 2-0 in the regular season. On those days rest, New York averaged 92 points per game, 43.5 rebounds, and 24 assists.

In the playoffs, the Liberty are 1-0 with three days rest, in which they average 90 points a game and 41 rebounds.

Why New York will cover the spread

New York has improved their play in the third quarter, which has been their downfall this postseason. In game one, the Liberty were limited to zero fast break points and were outrebounded by the Sun.

Prior to Tuesday’s game, Jonquel Jones briefly talked about the preparation for game two, and their adjustments.

“The preparation, it was just humbling in a lot of areas because we watched the film. The film doesn’t like obviously, ” said Jones. ” [Connecticut] exposed us in a lot of ways, and ultimately just watching the game, us as a team, we just saw that we didn’t play the style of basketball that we played all year.”

New York was able to outscore Connecticut 46-35 in the second half and made adjustments as a team. If Betnijah Laney can get some looks on both sides of the ball, that will be imperative for New York.

Several New York players have expressed their urgency to “punch first” while playing at their own pace and style. With Breanna Stewart winning the MVP, it’s hard to fade New York here, who’s headed into Connecticut with all that momentum.

The Connecticut Sun and New York Liberty are two elite teams

The Connecticut Sun covered the spread in three of the four regular-season matchups. Tonight, the spread is lesser at +/- 3.5. New York’s 95-90 overtime win was the smallest spread these two teams have seen all season.

Overall, the Connecticut Sun and the New York Liberty are two elite teams. For me, it comes down to momentum, coaching, and experience. Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner are incredible athletes, who are surrounded by a defensive juggernaut team.

New York is harder to guard on both the weak and strong side of the ball, as well as the interior. If they continue to make adjustments and not force shots, New York has the upper hand in terms of talent and strength.

Tonight will be either a blowout or an extremely close game. I will take my chances on New York to cover the -3.5 spread tonight.

Sabrina Ionescu O 20.5 Points and Assists (-137)

Sab lit it up in game 2 🔥 pic.twitter.com/MQ3WxBBY63

— New York Liberty (@nyliberty) September 27, 2023

Season Stats: PPG: 17 | FG: 42.3 % | 3 PT: 44.8 % | FT: 87.2 % | REB: 5.6 | AST: 5.4 |STL: 1 | BLK: 

Playoff Stats: PPG: 18.3 | FG: 41.8 % | 3 PT: 42.4 % | FT: 86.7 % | REB: 4.8 | AST: 3.3 |STL: 1

Season Stats vs CT: PPG: 16.5 | FG: 34.5 % | 3 PT: 35.7 % | FT: 100 % | REB: 2 | AST: 3 | STL: 0.5 

Sabrina Ionescu may not have won MVP, however, she’s been a constant force for the Liberty all season and into the playoffs. In the postseason, Ionescu is averaging over 18 points a game.

One of the bright spots on this struggling offense, No. 20 is shooting over 42 percent from long range this postseason.

In two games against Connecticut in the Semifinals, the Liberty guard is averaging over 16 points and two assists per game. 1-6 from the three, Ionescu has learned how to adapt to the opposing defenses.

Driving to the basket and drawing the fouls will be the key for the next matchup. After all, Ionescu made a playoff career high ten free-throw shots on Tuesday.

Why this prop will hit

If you’re betting on this prop, Sabrina Ionescu hit over 20.5 points and assists seven of the last ten games and three of the last five. Time after time, No. 20 has stated she thrives in pressure situations.

Look for the Liberty guard to fight around screens, drive to the basketball, and find off-ball opportunities. In their 95-90 win over the Sun in overtime, Ionescu finished with 18 points, four assists, on 2-7 three-point shooting.

With Bonner matched up with Jones, and Thomas on Stewart, I fully expect Sabrina Ionescu to take charge in some form on Friday.

Season Statistics & Betting Trends

New York Liberty

  • New York Liberty: 3-2 in their last 5 games.
  • 8-2 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 19-21-0
  • O/U Record: 23-17-0
  • 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 4-1 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 7-3 in the last 10 games.
  • 2nd in Offensive Rating (109.6)
  • 4th in Offensive Rating in the playoffs (104.5)
  • 3rd in Defensive Rating (99.4)
  • 4th in Defensive Rating in the playoffs (100)
  • 2nd in Points Per Game (89.2)
  • 5th in Pace: 96.56
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 80.6 (4th)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 37.4 (1st)
  • Three-Point Percentage playoffs: 30.9 % (6th)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 37.9 (2nd)
  • Rebounds Per Game playoffs: 37.8 (3rd)
  • New York ATS won last 10 games: Phoenix (-12.5), Minnesota (-9), Las Vegas (-2), Connecticut (-7.5), Chicago (-9), Washington (-9.5).

Game 2. What a day, what a day.🗽 #SEAFOAMSZN pic.twitter.com/bZUDTwXVf1

— New York Liberty (@nyliberty) September 28, 2023

Connecticut Sun

  • CT Sun: 3-2 in their last 5 games.
  • 6-4 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 21-17-2
  • O/U Record: 22-18-0
  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 2-3 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 5-5 in the last 10 games.
  • 4th in Offensive Rating (103.2)
  • 2nd in Offensive Rating in the playoffs (109)
  • 2nd in Defensive Rating (98.8)
  • 2nd in Defensive Rating in the playoffs (97.1)
  • 4th in Points Per Game (82.7)
  • 10th in Pace: 95.14
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 79 (1st)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 36% (4th)
  • Three-Point Percentage playoffs: 41.9 % (2nd)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 33.4 (6th)
  • Rebounds Per Game playoffs: 34 (6th)
  • Connecticut ATS won last 10 games: Chicago (-5.5), New York (+6), LA (-6.5, -10.5), Indiana (-10), Minnesota (-8.5, -5.5), New York (+8.5, +9.5).

The @ConnecticutSun get their first win vs. the Liberty this season to take Game 1 📈 #WNBAPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/4eR5L0lgQn

— ESPN (@espn) September 24, 2023

Head-to-head stats: Liberty vs. Sun

Season Matchups:

Game 1: New York 81, Connecticut 65 (New York -6.5, under 164.5)

Game 2: New York 89, Connecticut 81 (New York -4.5, over 168.5)

Game 3: New York 95, Connecticut 90 OT (Connecticut +6, over 166.5)

Game 4: New York 89, Connecticut 58 (New York +7.5, under 160)

Playoffs

Game 1: Connecticut 78, New York 63 (Connecticut +85, under 163)

Game 2: New York 84, Connecticut 77, (Connecticut +9.5, over 158)

  • Connecticut won the regular season series 4-0
  • The Liberty were 3-1 ATS vs. the Sun this season.
  • Game Points (AVG) last 10 matchups: 154
  • New York average points last 10 games: 87
  • Connecticut average points last 10 games: 81

The fight was ON 🤝 See y’all in CT Friday!

LIBS WIN 🗽 LIBS WIN 🗽 LIBS WIN 🗽 pic.twitter.com/kIW6g3CxUY

— New York Liberty (@nyliberty) September 27, 2023

  1. WNBA Womens Sports

    Angel Reese Sets WNBA Double-Double Record

    **Angel Reese, selected seventh overall by the Chicago Sky in the 2024 WNBA Draft, stands out as the lone rookie averaging a double-double this season.**

    For those who questioned Angel Reese’s fit in the WNBA, her performance has silenced skeptics and affirmed her status as a rising star in the league. Today, she made history that underscores her potential to become one of basketball’s all-time greats. Beyond her dominance on the court, Reese is also turning heads with her fashion sense, undeniable charisma, and unwavering self-assurance, which translate beautifully into her gameplay.

    In the Chicago Sky’s camp day victory, a score of 83-72 against the Dallas Wings, Reese recorded a career-high 18 rebounds alongside 16 points. With two steals added to her stats, the player dubbed “Chi-Town Barbie” achieved a remarkable milestone, becoming the first rookie ever in WNBA history to notch seven consecutive double-doubles. Eight of her rebounds were on the offensive glass, contributing to Chicago’s impressive 48-22 advantage in points scored in the paint. Just a week prior, she had set a new personal best with 20 points against the Connecticut Sun, finishing this latest game at a +17 efficiency while shooting 7-for-13 overall.

    Although the Dallas Wings faced injury challenges, their head coach, Latricia Tramell, opted for a larger lineup. With Natasha Howard returning under a minutes restriction, Reese took full advantage of the matchup, showcasing her talent against formidable opponents like Howard, Monique Billings, Teaira McCowan, Morgan Bertsch, and Stephanie Soares—none of whom are shorter than 6 foot 2. Her extraordinary performance is a testament to her skill set, particularly against a Dallas team that ranks second in the league for points scored in the paint. Winning in the WNBA is no small feat, particularly when competing against players towering 6 foot 5 and taller.

    In a post-game interview, Reese revealed that she had studied extensive film on Dallas, emphasizing her willingness to do the hard work for her teammates. “I’ll step in, I’ll mess up my nails, lashes, and stuff like that, just for my teammates,” Reese shared in a social media post from the Chicago Sky. She embodies the qualities every franchise covets in a cornerstone player: heart, grit, and hustle.

    Reese’s impressive statistics now place her among the legendary figures who paved the way for women’s basketball, such as Sylvia Fowles, Elena Delle Donne, and Candace Parker. With ambitions to surpass Fowles’s season offensive rebounding record, Reese is already third in the league in rebounds, leading all rookies with a total of 68 offensive boards, outpacing elite players such as A’ja Wilson, Napheesa Collier, and Alyssa Thomas.

    During the broadcast, Reese emphasized her close relationship with Fowles, reiterating her commitment to victory. “I just want to do whatever it takes to win, and rebounding is what I do to win,” Reese expressed following the game.

    With her seventh consecutive double-double, Reese is having a historic rookie season and is on track to break Fowles’s records as she continues to excel at just 22 years old. At halftime, she had already secured 11 rebounds and eclipsed previous records held by Cindy Brown and Tina Charles. Currently, she boasts averages of 12.4 points and 10.8 rebounds per game, making her the only rookie to reach double figures this season. Following the unfortunate injury to Cameron Brink, Reese has distinguished herself in her rookie class.

    The Sky entered this game on a rough stretch, having lost four consecutive outings against the Dream, Sun, Mystics, and Fever. However, Reese and her teammates delivered an electrifying performance at Chicago’s annual Camp Day, where many young fans experience their first WNBA game. Engaging with thousands of children in the crowd, Reese expressed her joy in clinching a victory. “Man, I’m just happy we finally won,” she told ESPN. “I’m excited to be in this league, and win some more.”

    Currently second overall in points behind Caitlin Clark, Reese leads all rookies in rebounds per game, free-throw attempts and makes, field goals attempted and made, and steals. Her accomplishments make a strong case for the 2024 WNBA Rookie of the Year Award.

    While other players also earn attention, it’s essential not to overlook Reese, a bona fide national champion and standout during her four years at LSU under the guidance of coach Kim Mulkey. Drafted alongside fellow Gamecock legend Kamilla Cardoso, there were questions about how the two would fit into Teresa Weatherspoon’s front court. Despite some media controversies, Reese consistently puts up impressive numbers.

    Standing at 6 foot 3, Reese has recorded double-doubles against notable teams like the Fever, Mystics, Sun, Dream, and Liberty. Out of those seven games, three teams rank among the top five in rebounding. Today, she exhibited relentless aggression, creating numerous second-chance opportunities. Developing her mid-range and outside shooting game would elevate her to a true triple threat.

    Eager to continue improving, Reese is a legitimate contender for Rookie of the Year, thriving by consistently making winning plays.

    With a season record of 5-9, Reese and the Chicago Sky look ahead to their next challenge against the Indiana Fever at home this Sunday evening.

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  2. WNBA Womens Sports

    Introducing the 2024 US Women’s 3×3 Olympics Team: Brink, Burdick, Howard, Van Lith

    Introducing the USA Basketball 3x3 Women's National Team

    Introducing the USA Basketball 3x3 Women's National Team

    The American Basketball organization has announced the starting lineup for the 2024 Women’s National 3×3 squad.

    Featuring the talented Cameron Brink as a standout, the team will also boast the skills of Rhyne Howard, Hailey Van Lith, and Cierra Burdick. Chosen by a selection panel, the Olympic Games are set to be held in Paris, showcasing what promises to be an exceedingly powerful, adaptable, and all-rounded team.

    Just a year prior, Brink, Van Lith, and Burdick guided the USA team to victory at the 2023 FIBA 3×3 World Cup, securing the gold medal. With a mix of experienced and emerging talents, team cohesion is expected to be even stronger. Van Lith and Burdick, in particular, have been playing alongside each other since the 2022 World Cup.

    The announcement of the players selected for the team was met with profound emotional displays across various social media platforms.

    At 22, Brink, who was the Los Angeles Sparks’ second pick in the 2024 WNBA Draft, has consistently performed during her freshman season. With Stanford as her alma mater, Brink’s averages include 8.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Renowned for her defensive capabilities, her professional performance has lived up to expectations.

    Ranking second in the WNBA for total blocks (21) and leading new recruits in that domain, Brink also stands third among her rookie peers for rebounds. As a highly regarded defensive anchor in the league, she excels in defensive boards per contest. With an average of 2.6 blocks per outing, her defensive acumen will be pivotal in the 3×3 format.

    After achieving a personal best of 21 points in a recent game against the Fever, the Stanford graduate was honored as the MVP of the 2023 3×3 FIBA World Cup, having steered her team to the top podium. She also played in the 2018 FIBA U17 and 2019 U19 Women’s World Cup teams.

    Expanding her team’s offensive options, Brink offers spacing on the floor and can both shoot from the distance and engage in post-up moves. A crucial element will be her prowess in seizing the offensive rebounds.

    Introduced at the Tokyo Games in 2021, the 3×3 basketball format promises a riveting yet demanding style of play. Rizzotti and the team are gearing up for their inaugural run in Paris, with the events slated to commence at the twilight of July, stretching into early August.

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  3. WNBA Womens Sports

    WNBA Players of the Week: A’ja Wilson and Sabrina Ionescu

    Week 3 Western Conference Player of the Week: A'ja Wilson

    Week 3 Western Conference Player of the Week: A'ja Wilson

    MVP Periodt and the Sovereign of Brooklyn are dominating WNBA news.

    A’ja Wilson from the Las Vegas Aces and Sabrina Ionescu of the New York Liberty have undeniably made an impression, influencing the game within and outside the bounds of the court. Formerly competitors in the 2023 WNBA Finals, they have now claimed the titles of Eastern and Western Conference players of the week.

    Ionescu is partnered with Nike and recently unwrapped the Sabrina 2s just last month. Around this coinciding period, Wilson disclosed her inaugural shoe, the Nike A’One, slated for a 2025 launch. Wilson now stands alongside Ionescu as one of the trio of active WNBA athletes boasting their own exclusive footwear lines.

    Not even a full two months into the current season and Wilson as well as Ionescu are exerting considerable influence on their respective squads’ performances.

    Despite Wilson’s impressive credentials as a two-time WNBA Champion, MVP, and Defensive Player of the Year, she hasn’t overlooked that one time she was ranked fourth by an MVP voter. And with reason, she perpetuates her response to the skeptics with stellar displays on the basketball court.

    A’ja Wilson is once again performing at an MVP level

    Off to a blistering start, the Aces star added eight blocks and three steals in both matchups against the Atlanta Dream and Minnesota Lynx.

    4-2 on the season, Becky Hammon and the Aces suffered a rare 78-74 against the Dream on the road. However, how can we forget Wilson’s unforgettable block on good friend Allisha Gray? It may not have traveled into the concession stand but was a statement block.

    On pace for another historical season, Wilson started off the season with five straight double-doubles, owning the longest streak of 20+ points and 10+ rebounds in WNBA history. The league leader in blocks with 12.4, Wilson boasted 29 points, 15 rebounds, three assists, two steals, and four blocks against the Lynx. And a few days later, she put up 28 points, three assists, one steal, and four blocks against the Dream. Over the two games, Wilson shot 46.1 percent from the field.

    Earning the weekly award for the 17th time in her career, Wilson has elevated her game significantly. Through six games into the 2024 season, the Aces star is averaging career-highs in points (26.5), rebounds (12.5), and blocks (2.8). Leading the league in player-estimated impact, Wilson is already poised as one of the all-time greats ever to grace the game.

    Sabrina Ionescu’s game has evolved beyond the three-point shot

    Nearly 21 percent (31) of Ionescu’s 146 field goal attempts have been delivered as driving layups and floating bank shots. Compare this to last year, where she only attempted 17 floater shots. More confident than ever, the California native averages the most points since her rookie season, with 17.9 points per game. Given she only played three games in her first season, it’s a testament to the dedication, growth, and evolution of her game.

    Ionescu started off the week with a game-high 22 points, six rebounds, and nine assists against the Phoenix Mercury at home. According to Liberty PR,  Ionescu became the first player in franchise history to record double-digit points with at least five assists in a single quarter (10 points and five assists).

    Just a few days later, No. 20 poured in 24 points, one rebound, three assists, on 50 percent three-point shooting against Washington at the Barclays. To end the week, the former Oregon star put up 16 points, six rebounds, and six assists in front of 17,000+ fans against the Indiana Fever.

    The Las Vegas Aces (4-2) are set to match up against the Dallas Wings, Seattle Storm, and Los Angeles Sparks this week. The New York Liberty defeated the Chicago Sky 88-75 on Tuesday night, and will matchup with Atlanta, Connecticut, and Washington later this week.

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