Sam Presti stands out as the NBA executive who successfully picked three future MVPs in a row, a stroke of luck mixed with calculated risk and foresight.

This remarkable achievement ensured short-term success for the transitioning Seattle Sonics into the Oklahoma City Thunder, a franchise needing substantial star power to thrive financially and competitively in a small market.

Presti’s selections of Kevin Durant in 2007, Russell Westbrook in 2008, and James Harden in 2009 set the stage for the Thunder’s initial success. However, despite this impressive start, Presti has struggled to find similar talent in subsequent drafts, failing to identify players earning All-Star or All-NBA recognition post-Harden era.

The high points include Durant’s 2014 MVP win, Westbrook’s 2017 MVP honor, and Harden’s subsequent MVP award in 2018, solidifying their places among the NBA elite. Despite their individual accolades, the trio’s combined achievements fell short of securing an NBA championship during their time together in OKC, highlighting a glaring underachievement in Presti’s tenure. This setback underscores the overlooked side of his drafting legacy.

How It Fell Apart

Beyond Presti’s early triumphs with Durant, Westbrook, and Harden, his draft choices took a turn for the worse. While the Thunder’s success limited their draft positions during the Westbrook-Durant era, Presti’s attempts at building a supporting cast failed to deliver sustained championship contention. Notably, the decision to trade away James Harden, a move that haunted the franchise in the years that followed.

Subsequent drafts from 2011 to 2017 saw Presti opt for risky selections instead of prudent choices to bolster the team around its core stars. The lackluster outcomes of these picks highlighted Presti’s repeated missteps in talent evaluation, a trend that continued into OKC’s current rebuilding phase.

Below are the first-round selections Presti made from 2011 – 2017.

2011: Reggie Jackson, 24th

2012: Perry Jackson, 28th

2013: Steven Adams, 12th

2014: Mitch McGary, 21st

2015: Cameron Payne, 14th

2017: Terrance Ferguson, 21st

Except for Adams, that’s a lot of busts. I won’t waste time going through every player Presti could have selected instead, perhaps a safer or better fit around Durant and Westbrook. But just looking at guys like Ferguson tells you everything you need to know about how bad Presti’s eye test failed during the 2010s. And it’s continued into this current rebuild.

While some late-round successes like Lu Dort in 2020 offer a glimmer of hope, Presti’s more recent choices, like the underwhelming Josh Giddey in 2021, raise concerns. The ill-advised draft day trade for Ousman Dieng in 2021 stands out as one of Presti’s regrettable decisions, further underscoring his declining draft strategies.

Out of the times Presti has selected in the lottery (2007, 2008, 2009, 2013, 2015, 2021, 2022 (twice) and 2023), he hit on seven (Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Adams, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace) and missed on three (Cameron Payne, Giddey, Dieng). That’s a pretty solid rate over the last 15 years. But beyond that, when it comes to less surefire selections, Presti has been atrocious.

Of the 18 times he has selected (and retained) between the 15th and 60th picks, he has only hit twice in his entire career: Serge Ibaka at No. 24 in 2008 and Reggie Jackson at No. 24 in 2011. Washouts like Mitch McGary, Ferguson and Theo Maledon were all out of the NBA in four seasons or less.

And what draft-day trades has Presti made since taking the job? He’s lost every single one. Take a look:

2010 (Lost): The Clippers acquired the 18th pick (Eric Bledsoe) in exchange for a future-protected first-round draft pick. The Thunder subsequently included that pick in a trade with Boston, which netted them center Kendrick Perkins.

2018 (Lost): The Memphis Grizzlies acquired the 21st pick (Brandon Clarke) for the 2019 draft rights to the 23rd pick (Darius Bazley) and a future second-round draft pick from the Thunder. Bazley is no longer in the NBA.

2020 (Lost): Minnesota Timberwolves acquired Ricky Rubio, the 25th (Immanuel Quickley) and 28th picks (Jaden McDaniels) for the No. 17th pick (Aleksej Pokuševski). Poku was waived earlier this month.

2021 (Lost): Houston Rockets acquired 16th pick (Alperen Şengün) for two future highly-protected first-round picks from the Wizards and Pistons. Those picks would be packaged to select Dieng in 2023. Dieng is out of the Thunder rotation.

2022 (TBD): Dallas swapped the 10th pick (Cason Wallace) for the 12th pick (Derek Lively). While Wallace is an elite defender and three-point shooter, Lively is exactly the kind of rebounding big they needed to back up Holmgren. The Thunder are currently bottom of the league in rebounding.

The Thunder waived Poku earlier this month. Both Quickley and McDaniels are starting for their respective teams. Even worse was when Presti drafted current Most Improved Player candidate Şengün in 2021, just to trade him on draft night for future protected picks he would use in the trade with the Knicks to acquire Dieng.

This season Şengün is averaging 21.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG and 5 APG. The squandering of Şengün is not just Presti’s worst draft decision ever, but one of the worst draft trades of the 21st Century.

In a league where successful draft picks are crucial, Presti’s track record beyond his initial MVP selections paints a less flattering picture. His consistent misses in identifying talent beyond lottery picks and unsuccessful draft day trades highlight a stark contrast to his early successes in Oklahoma City.

While Presti’s ability to fleece other teams in trades is commendable, his draft prowess, once hailed as groundbreaking, now appears overshadowed by repeated disappointments in player selection and strategic trades. Despite the mantra of taking risks to win big, in Presti’s case, these bets have often fallen short of achieving championship glory.