Betting Odds & Predictions: Sun vs. Lynx | WNBA Playoffs Game 1

Napheesa Collier CAREER-HIGH 33 Points Vs. Storm | June 27, 2023

The 2023 WNBA Playoffs first-round starts tonight. The Connecticut Sun will matchup against the Minnesota Lynx at home. Here, you will find the WNBA betting odds, stats, trends, player prop bets, and predictions for Wednesday, September 13. 

Tonight is Game 1 of the first-round WNBA playoffs between the Connecticut Sun (27-13, 13-7 Home) and the Minnesota Lynx (19-21,10-10 Away). The first of three games, the Sun will look to make a trip back to the finals. 3-2 in their last five games, Connecticut will have their seventh straight playoff appearance.

The Minnesota Lynx, led by Napheesa Collier, will look to make a run after missing the 2022 playoffs. In the final games of the regular season, the Lynx dropped three of five.

 In this article, I will break down the WNBA betting odds, statistics, trends, odds, player prop bets, and predictions. The matchup will begin at 8 p.m. ET, at Mohegan Sun Arena, located in Uncasville, Connecticut.  

If you’re Betting on the WNBA and interested in watching, the game will air on ESPN2. For the best betting odds, stats, and analysis, here is information to know.

WNBA Daily Odds Game 1: Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynx

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Connecticut Sun -8.5 (-106)

With injuries and off-season trades, the Connecticut Sun were destined to regress. With the inconceivable play of Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, the Sun have remained one of the most exceptional teams in the league.

Prolific on defense, the Sun rank second in Defensive Rating (98.8) and lead the league in opponent points per game (79). With DiJonai Carrington as the only player listed as questionable, the Sun should have the most players available in this series.

Connecticut is 3-1 against Minnesota, in which the Lynx covered the spread 75 percent. As the third-best team in the WNBA, Connecticut averages five more points at home (85), rebounds (34.2), assists (21.6), and steals (8.5). On their home court, the Sun shoot more efficiently in every aspect.

Typically, on three days’ rest, the Sun shoot close to 40 percent from three and have a record of 3-3. Overall, Connecticut is 21-17-2 against the spread, which is over the positive mark.

In four games against Minnesota, Connecticut has one loss on their home court. In four meetings, they scored an averaged of 85 points per game, 33.8 rebounds, 22 assists, 6.8 steals, and 5.5 blocks. Additionally, they are a 46 percent field goal and 30.6 three-point shooting team against the Lynx.

With a 32-point differential, they face a Minnesota team who will be without Jessica Shepard and Lindsay Allen. Although Minnesota is 21-18-1 against the spread, only six covers against the spread came against teams that are .500 or better.

Why the Sun will cover

I love that the Minnesota Lynx continue to build around Kayla McBride and Napheesa Collier. They have promising young rookies in Dorka Juhasz and Diamond Miller, who were just named to the AP All-Rookie team. With two straight losses against Indiana and Chicago to close out the season, the Lynx will face a Connecticut Sun team that is one year removed from the WNBA finals.

Not able to cover the spread in the last two games, Minnesota remains inconsistent, and one of the worst defensive teams heading into the playoffs. I believe this team can be a dominant force in the league, perhaps with less injuries and more development of younger players.

With the Sun well-rested, I expect them to fully cover the spread at home tonight. With the departure of Curt Miller, there’s a reason why Stephanie White was named AP Coach of the Year.

Alyssa Thomas 23 Points + Assists

PPG: 15.5 | FG: 47.4 % | 3 PT: 0 % | FT: 71.5 % | REB: 9.9 | AST: 7.9 |STL: 1.8 | BLK: 0.5

In the MVP conversation, Alyssa Thomas finished a brilliant 2023 season. In her MVP campaign, Thomas was named to the Associated Press First Team All-League. Through 40 games, Thomas broke the single-season assist record with 316, along with several honorable accolades.

The forward made WNBA history, including six triple-doubles, and 28 double-doubles. No. 25 is the first player ever with 600 points, 300 rebounds, and 300 assists. In the history of the WNBA, Thomas stands among the only athlete to have back-to-back triple-doubles, and a 20-point/ 20 assist/10 rebound game. Her back-to-back triple-double game ironically was against Minnesota, twice.

Not a threat behind the perimeter, Thomas prides herself in excelling in all areas of the court. With the absence of Brionna Jones, Thomas has taken the role of point forward. In her 10th season with the Connecticut Sun, Alyssa Thomas is truly a definition of a leader and a player who can perform everywhere on the court.

A one-of-a-kind athlete, the forward shines defensively, and offensively, which includes scoring, throwing dimes, and rebounding.

Why this prop will hit

In a crucial Game 1 of the WNBA playoffs, the Connecticut Sun are coming off three days’ rest. This prop hit 50 percent of the season, 50 percent in the last ten games, and 75 percent of the matchups against Minnesota this season.

Though over 23 points and assist hit once in the last four games, Stephanie White managed her minutes in the last home matchup versus the Chicago Sky. With DiJonai Carrington listed as questionable, look for Thomas to be the engine of this offense, especially early on.

In home matchups, Thomas averages 8.5 assists per game, whereas on the road, No. 25 dishes out 7.4 dimes. The point forward takes 13.2 shots a game at their home court, which is almost one more attempt than on the road. Off three days of rest, the Sun star averages 15.8 points, and 8.3 assists per game.

Matchup against the Lynx

In four matchups against the Lynx, Thomas averaged 17.3 points, 13 rebounds, 10.3 assists, and 1.5 steals. On August 1, the forward became the first player in WNBA history to have back-to-back triple-doubles against the Lynx. In those two matchups, she had a combined 38 points, 34 rebounds, 23 assists, and 5 steals. Thomas played significantly superior at home against the opposition.

At Mohegan Sun Arena against the Lynx, Thomas averages 19 points, 17 rebounds, and 11.5 assists, all significantly higher than on the road. In The Suns previous regular season matchup with them, Thomas had an incredible 21 points, 20 rebounds, and 12 assists in 40 minutes. Given Connecticut is 3-1 against Minnesota, and the way No. 25 has played, it’s very hard to fade this prop. Given that Minnesota ranks 10th in defensive rating, I expect Alyssa Thomas to shine in Game 1 of the playoffs tonight.

Season Statistics & Betting Trends

Connecticut Sun

  • CT Sun: 3-2 in their last 5 games.
  • 6-4 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 21-17-2
  • O/U Record: 22-18-0
  • 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 3-2 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 5-5 in the last 10 games.
  • 4th in Offensive Rating (103.2)
  • 2nd in Defensive Rating (98.8)
  • 4th in Points Per Game (82.7)
  • 10th in Pace: 95.14
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 79 (1st)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 36% (4th)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 33.6 (8th)
  • Connecticut ATS won last 10 games: Chicago (-5.5), New York (+6), LA (-6.5, -10.5), Indiana (-10)

Minnesota Lynx

  • Minnesota Lynx: 2-3 in their last 5 games.
  • 5-5 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 21-18-0
  • O/U Record: 21-17-0
  • 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 3-2 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 7-3 in the last 10 games.
  • 8th in Offensive Rating (99.8)
  • 10th in Defensive Rating (105.7)
  • 8th in Points Per Game (80.2)
  • 9th in Pace: 95.84
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 85 (11th)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 32.5 (11th)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 34.3 (6th)
  • Minnesota: ATS won last 10 games:  Seattle (-2), Dallas (+6, +6.5), Atlanta (-1.5), Phoenix (-8.5)

Head-to-head stats: Sun vs. Lynx

Season Matchups:

Game 1: Connecticut 89, Minnesota 84 (Minnesota +6, over 159.5)

Game 2: Connecticut 89, Minnesota 68 (Connecticut -4, under 158)

Game 3: Minnesota 87, Connecticut 83 (Minnesota +12.5, over 161)

Game 4: Connecticut 79, Minnesota 69 (Minnesota +11.5, under 164)

  • Connecticut won the series 3-1
  • The Lynx are 3-1 ATS vs. the Sun this season.
  • Game Points (AVG) last 10 matchups: 159
  • Connecticut average points last 10 games: 79
  • Minnesota average points last 10 games: 82

  1. WNBA Womens Sports

    Angel Reese Sets WNBA Double-Double Record

    **Angel Reese, selected seventh overall by the Chicago Sky in the 2024 WNBA Draft, stands out as the lone rookie averaging a double-double this season.**

    For those who questioned Angel Reese’s fit in the WNBA, her performance has silenced skeptics and affirmed her status as a rising star in the league. Today, she made history that underscores her potential to become one of basketball’s all-time greats. Beyond her dominance on the court, Reese is also turning heads with her fashion sense, undeniable charisma, and unwavering self-assurance, which translate beautifully into her gameplay.

    In the Chicago Sky’s camp day victory, a score of 83-72 against the Dallas Wings, Reese recorded a career-high 18 rebounds alongside 16 points. With two steals added to her stats, the player dubbed “Chi-Town Barbie” achieved a remarkable milestone, becoming the first rookie ever in WNBA history to notch seven consecutive double-doubles. Eight of her rebounds were on the offensive glass, contributing to Chicago’s impressive 48-22 advantage in points scored in the paint. Just a week prior, she had set a new personal best with 20 points against the Connecticut Sun, finishing this latest game at a +17 efficiency while shooting 7-for-13 overall.

    Although the Dallas Wings faced injury challenges, their head coach, Latricia Tramell, opted for a larger lineup. With Natasha Howard returning under a minutes restriction, Reese took full advantage of the matchup, showcasing her talent against formidable opponents like Howard, Monique Billings, Teaira McCowan, Morgan Bertsch, and Stephanie Soares—none of whom are shorter than 6 foot 2. Her extraordinary performance is a testament to her skill set, particularly against a Dallas team that ranks second in the league for points scored in the paint. Winning in the WNBA is no small feat, particularly when competing against players towering 6 foot 5 and taller.

    In a post-game interview, Reese revealed that she had studied extensive film on Dallas, emphasizing her willingness to do the hard work for her teammates. “I’ll step in, I’ll mess up my nails, lashes, and stuff like that, just for my teammates,” Reese shared in a social media post from the Chicago Sky. She embodies the qualities every franchise covets in a cornerstone player: heart, grit, and hustle.

    Reese’s impressive statistics now place her among the legendary figures who paved the way for women’s basketball, such as Sylvia Fowles, Elena Delle Donne, and Candace Parker. With ambitions to surpass Fowles’s season offensive rebounding record, Reese is already third in the league in rebounds, leading all rookies with a total of 68 offensive boards, outpacing elite players such as A’ja Wilson, Napheesa Collier, and Alyssa Thomas.

    During the broadcast, Reese emphasized her close relationship with Fowles, reiterating her commitment to victory. “I just want to do whatever it takes to win, and rebounding is what I do to win,” Reese expressed following the game.

    With her seventh consecutive double-double, Reese is having a historic rookie season and is on track to break Fowles’s records as she continues to excel at just 22 years old. At halftime, she had already secured 11 rebounds and eclipsed previous records held by Cindy Brown and Tina Charles. Currently, she boasts averages of 12.4 points and 10.8 rebounds per game, making her the only rookie to reach double figures this season. Following the unfortunate injury to Cameron Brink, Reese has distinguished herself in her rookie class.

    The Sky entered this game on a rough stretch, having lost four consecutive outings against the Dream, Sun, Mystics, and Fever. However, Reese and her teammates delivered an electrifying performance at Chicago’s annual Camp Day, where many young fans experience their first WNBA game. Engaging with thousands of children in the crowd, Reese expressed her joy in clinching a victory. “Man, I’m just happy we finally won,” she told ESPN. “I’m excited to be in this league, and win some more.”

    Currently second overall in points behind Caitlin Clark, Reese leads all rookies in rebounds per game, free-throw attempts and makes, field goals attempted and made, and steals. Her accomplishments make a strong case for the 2024 WNBA Rookie of the Year Award.

    While other players also earn attention, it’s essential not to overlook Reese, a bona fide national champion and standout during her four years at LSU under the guidance of coach Kim Mulkey. Drafted alongside fellow Gamecock legend Kamilla Cardoso, there were questions about how the two would fit into Teresa Weatherspoon’s front court. Despite some media controversies, Reese consistently puts up impressive numbers.

    Standing at 6 foot 3, Reese has recorded double-doubles against notable teams like the Fever, Mystics, Sun, Dream, and Liberty. Out of those seven games, three teams rank among the top five in rebounding. Today, she exhibited relentless aggression, creating numerous second-chance opportunities. Developing her mid-range and outside shooting game would elevate her to a true triple threat.

    Eager to continue improving, Reese is a legitimate contender for Rookie of the Year, thriving by consistently making winning plays.

    With a season record of 5-9, Reese and the Chicago Sky look ahead to their next challenge against the Indiana Fever at home this Sunday evening.

    Continue Reading
  2. WNBA Womens Sports

    Introducing the 2024 US Women’s 3×3 Olympics Team: Brink, Burdick, Howard, Van Lith

    Introducing the USA Basketball 3x3 Women's National Team

    Introducing the USA Basketball 3x3 Women's National Team

    The American Basketball organization has announced the starting lineup for the 2024 Women’s National 3×3 squad.

    Featuring the talented Cameron Brink as a standout, the team will also boast the skills of Rhyne Howard, Hailey Van Lith, and Cierra Burdick. Chosen by a selection panel, the Olympic Games are set to be held in Paris, showcasing what promises to be an exceedingly powerful, adaptable, and all-rounded team.

    Just a year prior, Brink, Van Lith, and Burdick guided the USA team to victory at the 2023 FIBA 3×3 World Cup, securing the gold medal. With a mix of experienced and emerging talents, team cohesion is expected to be even stronger. Van Lith and Burdick, in particular, have been playing alongside each other since the 2022 World Cup.

    The announcement of the players selected for the team was met with profound emotional displays across various social media platforms.

    At 22, Brink, who was the Los Angeles Sparks’ second pick in the 2024 WNBA Draft, has consistently performed during her freshman season. With Stanford as her alma mater, Brink’s averages include 8.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Renowned for her defensive capabilities, her professional performance has lived up to expectations.

    Ranking second in the WNBA for total blocks (21) and leading new recruits in that domain, Brink also stands third among her rookie peers for rebounds. As a highly regarded defensive anchor in the league, she excels in defensive boards per contest. With an average of 2.6 blocks per outing, her defensive acumen will be pivotal in the 3×3 format.

    After achieving a personal best of 21 points in a recent game against the Fever, the Stanford graduate was honored as the MVP of the 2023 3×3 FIBA World Cup, having steered her team to the top podium. She also played in the 2018 FIBA U17 and 2019 U19 Women’s World Cup teams.

    Expanding her team’s offensive options, Brink offers spacing on the floor and can both shoot from the distance and engage in post-up moves. A crucial element will be her prowess in seizing the offensive rebounds.

    Introduced at the Tokyo Games in 2021, the 3×3 basketball format promises a riveting yet demanding style of play. Rizzotti and the team are gearing up for their inaugural run in Paris, with the events slated to commence at the twilight of July, stretching into early August.

    Continue Reading
  3. WNBA Womens Sports

    WNBA Players of the Week: A’ja Wilson and Sabrina Ionescu

    Week 3 Western Conference Player of the Week: A'ja Wilson

    Week 3 Western Conference Player of the Week: A'ja Wilson

    MVP Periodt and the Sovereign of Brooklyn are dominating WNBA news.

    A’ja Wilson from the Las Vegas Aces and Sabrina Ionescu of the New York Liberty have undeniably made an impression, influencing the game within and outside the bounds of the court. Formerly competitors in the 2023 WNBA Finals, they have now claimed the titles of Eastern and Western Conference players of the week.

    Ionescu is partnered with Nike and recently unwrapped the Sabrina 2s just last month. Around this coinciding period, Wilson disclosed her inaugural shoe, the Nike A’One, slated for a 2025 launch. Wilson now stands alongside Ionescu as one of the trio of active WNBA athletes boasting their own exclusive footwear lines.

    Not even a full two months into the current season and Wilson as well as Ionescu are exerting considerable influence on their respective squads’ performances.

    Despite Wilson’s impressive credentials as a two-time WNBA Champion, MVP, and Defensive Player of the Year, she hasn’t overlooked that one time she was ranked fourth by an MVP voter. And with reason, she perpetuates her response to the skeptics with stellar displays on the basketball court.

    A’ja Wilson is once again performing at an MVP level

    Off to a blistering start, the Aces star added eight blocks and three steals in both matchups against the Atlanta Dream and Minnesota Lynx.

    4-2 on the season, Becky Hammon and the Aces suffered a rare 78-74 against the Dream on the road. However, how can we forget Wilson’s unforgettable block on good friend Allisha Gray? It may not have traveled into the concession stand but was a statement block.

    On pace for another historical season, Wilson started off the season with five straight double-doubles, owning the longest streak of 20+ points and 10+ rebounds in WNBA history. The league leader in blocks with 12.4, Wilson boasted 29 points, 15 rebounds, three assists, two steals, and four blocks against the Lynx. And a few days later, she put up 28 points, three assists, one steal, and four blocks against the Dream. Over the two games, Wilson shot 46.1 percent from the field.

    Earning the weekly award for the 17th time in her career, Wilson has elevated her game significantly. Through six games into the 2024 season, the Aces star is averaging career-highs in points (26.5), rebounds (12.5), and blocks (2.8). Leading the league in player-estimated impact, Wilson is already poised as one of the all-time greats ever to grace the game.

    Sabrina Ionescu’s game has evolved beyond the three-point shot

    Nearly 21 percent (31) of Ionescu’s 146 field goal attempts have been delivered as driving layups and floating bank shots. Compare this to last year, where she only attempted 17 floater shots. More confident than ever, the California native averages the most points since her rookie season, with 17.9 points per game. Given she only played three games in her first season, it’s a testament to the dedication, growth, and evolution of her game.

    Ionescu started off the week with a game-high 22 points, six rebounds, and nine assists against the Phoenix Mercury at home. According to Liberty PR,  Ionescu became the first player in franchise history to record double-digit points with at least five assists in a single quarter (10 points and five assists).

    Just a few days later, No. 20 poured in 24 points, one rebound, three assists, on 50 percent three-point shooting against Washington at the Barclays. To end the week, the former Oregon star put up 16 points, six rebounds, and six assists in front of 17,000+ fans against the Indiana Fever.

    The Las Vegas Aces (4-2) are set to match up against the Dallas Wings, Seattle Storm, and Los Angeles Sparks this week. The New York Liberty defeated the Chicago Sky 88-75 on Tuesday night, and will matchup with Atlanta, Connecticut, and Washington later this week.

    Continue Reading